How much does HVAC marketing cost with Scale Theory?
US$3,000 a month plus applicable sales tax. The first 90 days cost US$9,000, split in two: US$4,500 on signing and US$4,500 once you have won 3 jobs from quotes we booked, or at day 60, whichever comes first. After that it is month to month, 30 days notice. Ad spend is extra, paid by you to Meta and Google.
Put simply: pay half to start. You only pay the other half once you've won 3 jobs from quotes we booked.
That is the whole price, the same for every contractor who fits. There is no setup fee beyond the first payment. All figures on this page are in US dollars. We publish it because a lot of agencies do not, and you should be able to check the maths before giving anyone an hour.
What is included in the monthly fee?
Everything needed to turn ad spend into booked replacement quotes on your calendar: Meta ads, Google Search ads, Google Business Profile management, review requests, landing pages, the six-question qualifier, CRM, the 60-second text and call, booking, day 1, 3 and 7 follow-up, and the Friday report.
- Meta campaigns (Facebook and Instagram) built from your own job photos and video, run in your ad account
- Google Search campaigns for replacement, new install and "AC not cooling" searches in your service area, run in your Google Ads account
- Google Business Profile management: services, photos, categories and posts kept current
- Automated review requests after every install
- City-matched landing pages on your domain or a subdomain
- The six-question qualifier: property type, current system, replace or repair, urgency, budget, ownership
- CRM with the full pipeline and your own login
- Text and call inside 60 seconds, by an AI receptionist with a virtual assistant behind it
- Booking into your calendar with the homeowner's answers attached
- Follow-up texts on days 1, 3 and 7 after the quote, in your company's name
- The Friday report: booked quotes by channel, cost per booked quote and jobs won
Texts only go to homeowners who gave express written consent on the form, from an A2P 10DLC registered number. The whole system is explained step by step on the HVAC Profit Machine page.
What is not included?
| Not included | Why |
|---|---|
| Ad spend | You pay Meta and Google directly on your card. You see every dollar and there is no markup. |
| SEO | A different job on a different timeline. It may come later as a separate add-on. |
| Website rebuilds | We build landing pages, not full websites. |
| Google Local Services Ads | We do not run them. If you already do, keep them, and compare them against our booked quotes. |
| Repair and tune-up campaigns as the lead offer | Our ads lead with full system replacements and new installs of central AC and heat pumps. |
How does the ad spend split between Meta and Google?
The minimum is US$4,000 a month combined. By default Meta gets $2,500 and Google Search $1,500. In Texas peak cooling months, May to September, we flip it: Google $2,500 and Meta $1,500, because homeowners search when a system fails. The rest of the year leans to Meta.
Meta finds owners of aging systems before they search. Google catches the ones searching now. The trade-off is in Google Ads vs Facebook ads for HVAC.
Spend also follows your install schedule. When your lead time for installs stretches past about three weeks, we turn spend down rather than book quotes you cannot install. It never drops below the US$4,000 combined minimum while we run your account.
What does the first 90 days cost in total?
At the US$4,000 combined minimum, the first 90 days cost US$21,000: US$9,000 to us, plus applicable sales tax, and US$12,000 to Meta and Google. From month four it is US$7,000 a month at the same spend: US$3,000 to us and US$4,000 in ads, month to month.
| Period | Scale Theory fee | Ad spend (paid to Meta and Google) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| On signing | $4,500 | $4,500 | |
| Month 1 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| Month 2 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| 3 jobs won or day 60 | $4,500 | $4,500 | |
| Month 3 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| First 90 days | $9,000 | $12,000 | $21,000 |
| Each month after | $3,000 | $4,000 | $7,000 |
The fee is before applicable sales tax. The second payment can land in month 1 or 2; the 90-day total does not change.
Only jobs with a quoted value of US$5,000 or more count toward the 3. Smaller wins are still reported. A quote counts as won 14 days after it is sent unless you mark it lost with a reason.
How many replacements do you need to break even?
Break-even in jobs is your all-in monthly cost divided by your gross profit per replacement. At the US$4,000 minimum spend, all-in is US$7,000 a month: US$3,000 fee plus US$4,000 ads. We do not publish a Texas gross profit figure because we have not verified one. Use your own.
Worked example: break-even and the planning funnel (illustrative, planning assumptions)
Break-even jobs a month = ($3,000 fee + $4,000 ad spend) / your gross profit per replacement
Illustration only: if a replacement leaves you $3,500 gross profit, $7,000 / $3,500 = 2 replacements a month
Planning funnel: $4,000 / $100 to $130 assumed blended cost per enquiry = about 35 enquiries
35 x 60% pass the qualifier = about 21 qualified. 21 x 60% book = about 12 to 13 booked quotes
$7,000 / 12.5 = about $560 all-in per booked quote
12.5 x 30% close = about 3 to 4 won jobs a month
The $3,500 is not a Texas figure. It is a round number to show the shape of the sum. Put your own gross profit per replacement in its place:
| Your gross profit per replacement (illustrative) | Replacements a month to cover $7,000 |
|---|---|
| $2,000 | 3.5 |
| $3,000 | about 2.3 |
| $4,000 | about 1.8 |
| $5,000 | 1.4 |
The funnel figures are planning assumptions: a $100 to $130 blended cost per enquiry across Meta and Google, a 60% qualifier pass rate, 60% of qualified homeowners booking, and a 30% close on exclusive, pre-qualified quotes. They come from how we plan in Australia. We have no US clients and no Texas data. Your first month of real numbers replaces every one of them. Covering your marketing cost is not the same as profit on the business, and nothing about this structure guarantees either.
Two things move these numbers more than anything we do: how fast your team replies and how well it follows up after the quote. Read speed to lead and the day 1, 3 and 7 quote follow-up.
Are we a fit? What we check on the audit call
We ask three numbers: your average replacement ticket, your gross margin and your replacement share of revenue. We do not sign if break-even needs more than about 2 replacements a month, if replacements and new installs are under about 40% of your work, or if you cannot take on 2 or more extra replacements a month.
- Size. Independent contractors doing roughly $1M to $10M in revenue, with 3 or more trucks.
- Replacement-heavy. Our ads sell full systems. A repair-heavy shop gets quotes it does not want.
- Capacity. Booked quotes are no use if the install schedule is full for six weeks.
- Territory. One HVAC client per service line per metro area. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio are open. See the Texas overview for each.
Why is half of the first 90 days paid later?
Because it puts half of the first 90 days behind your results. If the system books quotes that turn into jobs quickly, you pay sooner. If it is slow, we wait until day 60. We plan for the third job to land inside 60 days even if cost per enquiry runs 30% worse than planned. That is a plan, not a promise.
Why is there no guarantee?
We do not control quoting, pricing, close rate or install capacity. A guarantee that ignores those usually hides in fine print. You get a published price, a second payment that waits on 3 won jobs or day 60, weekly numbers and month-to-month terms after 90 days. If you leave, your ad accounts, landing pages and every contact stay with you.
We are based in Sydney and work Texas business hours remotely. We have no US clients yet. If that is a deal-breaker, better to know now than after a call.