Why is the Hills District a strong ducted market?
Because the homes are big, owned and hot enough to need it. In the 2021 Census, 81.2% of dwellings in The Hills Shire were separate houses and 67.5% had four or more bedrooms, against 33.1% across Greater Sydney. Only 20.4% were rented. Big, owner-occupied houses are where ducted quotes come from.
| 2021 Census, occupied dwellings | The Hills Shire | Hornsby | Greater Sydney |
|---|---|---|---|
| Separate house | 81.2% | 69.5% | 55.8% |
| Flat or apartment | 9.8% | 21.9% | 30.7% |
| 4 or more bedrooms | 67.5% | 46.2% | 33.1% |
| Owned outright | 31.0% | 33.9% | 27.8% |
| Owned with a mortgage | 46.1% | 39.6% | 33.3% |
| Rented | 20.4% | 23.1% | 35.9% |
Source: ABS 2021 Census QuickStats, linked below. We include Hornsby because Cherrybrook and West Pennant Hills sit in that council area but buy like the Hills.
Two thirds of homes with four or more bedrooms is one of the strongest numbers on any of our Sydney pages. It means your typical enquiry is a ducted or large multi-head job, not a bedroom split.
How hot is the Hills District compared with the city?
Hotter than the coast, a bit cooler than Penrith. The Bureau has no long-running station in the middle of the Hills, so we bracket it. Parramatta North averages 28.6°C in January with 44.2 days a year at 30°C or more. Richmond RAAF, to the north-west, averages 30.4°C with 64.7 such days.
| BOM station | Record used | Mean Jan max | Days ≥ 30°C a year | Days ≥ 35°C a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond RAAF | 1993 to 2026 | 30.4°C | 64.7 | 19.1 |
| Parramatta North (Masons Drive) | 1967 to 2026 | 28.6°C | 44.2 | 11.1 |
| Sydney (Observatory Hill) | 1859 to 2020 | 26.0°C | 15.2 | 3.2 |
We are not going to invent a Castle Hill number. What we can say is that both stations either side of the Hills run three to four times the hot days of the city. That is enough summer to sell whole-home cooling, and enough winter chill to sell reverse cycle heating in the same system.
What are the Hills District's housing types, and what do they buy?
There are three. Newer estates in Box Hill, North Kellyville and Rouse Hill. Established 1980s to 2000s homes in Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Cherrybrook and Glenhaven. Larger lots and acreage around Dural. Each wants a different ducted conversation, so each gets its own ad set and page.
- New estates. Some homes were handed over with ducted, some with a rough-in, some with nothing. The pitch is ducted with zoning, sized off a proper heat-load assessment, not a rule of thumb.
- Established homes with old ducted. Where a 1980s to 2000s home already has ducted, the complaints are usually the same: noisy, one zone, poor airflow upstairs. The pitch is replacement and zoning, and the ESS discount can apply where the household is eligible.
- Acreage and large lots. Bigger homes, longer runs, sometimes two systems. Fewer enquiries, bigger quotes. We give them their own page so the qualifier can ask about house size early.
Multi-head fits the two-storey homes where the roof space is tight over the upper floor. Single splits exist, but we never advertise single-room splits, here or anywhere.
How would we run Meta and Google ads in the Hills District?
We would run Meta and Google Search together. On Meta we split the Hills into new-estate and established suburbs, with a separate offer to each. Search catches Hills owners already looking. The radius follows your vans. Heat-load assessments lead in the estates, replacement and zoning in the older suburbs. Everything goes through the qualifier.
A typical build:
- Ad set 1, new estates: Box Hill, North Kellyville, Rouse Hill, Kellyville. Offer: free in-home heat-load assessment, dated install slots.
- Ad set 2, replacement: Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Cherrybrook, Glenhaven, West Pennant Hills. Offer: replace and zone your old ducted, NSW discount applied on the quote where eligible.
- Qualifier: property type, current system, install or repair, urgency, budget, ownership. With 20.4% of homes rented, ownership still matters.
- Google Search: the same suburbs, bidding on ducted, zoning and replacement searches such as "ducted air conditioning Castle Hill" and "replace ducted air con", plus breakdown searches when a heatwave finishes off an old system. No single-room split searches.
- Seasonal split: the $4,000 minimum starts at Meta $2,500 and Google $1,500. From December to February we flip it to Google $2,500 and Meta $1,500, because people search when systems break.
- Speed: SMS and call inside 60 seconds, then a booked visit in your diary with the answers attached.
The creative approach for big-ticket systems is in how to market ducted air conditioning. The lead handling side is on our HVAC CRM automation page, and the Search build on Google Ads for HVAC.
What is a booked ducted quote worth in the Hills?
On our planning numbers, about $800 to $1,800 of expected gross profit. A booked quote is a qualified homeowner booked in for an in-home quote, in your diary, with a time. We have no Hills client data yet, so the maths below is an assumption, not a result.
Worked example: expected value of one booked ducted quote (planning assumptions)
Sydney 3 to 4 bedroom ducted install: $10,500 to $16,500
Gross profit per ducted job: $2,300 to $4,800, about $3,500 as the planning midpoint
Close rate on exclusive, pre-qualified quotes: 30 to 40%, we plan with 30%
Expected gross profit: 30% × $3,500 = about $1,050 per booked ducted quote
All-in planning cost: ($3,000 fee + $4,000 Meta and Google spend) ÷ about 12.5 booked quotes = about $550 per booked quote
In a region where most enquiries are ducted, the gap between about $550 and about $1,050 is the whole case. If the mix turns out to be more split-heavy than we expect, the numbers change, and the weekly report will show it.
Does the NSW ESS discount help in the Hills?
It helps most on replacement jobs in the established suburbs. The NSW Energy Savings Scheme gives eligible households an upfront discount on the quote, indicatively up to $550 for a new 6kW system and up to $560 replacing an old unit with a 6kW split. There is no closing date.
On a new ducted system in Box Hill, the discount is a small line against the quote, so it supports the ad rather than leading it. The NSW page notes homes that already have an efficient system may not be eligible. How installers word it in ads is covered in our NSW discount guide.
How do Hills homeowners search for air conditioning?
They search system first, then suburb: ducted air conditioning Castle Hill, ducted zoning, replace ducted air con, aircon installer Kellyville. We have not pulled keyword volumes for this page, so we will not quote any. The pattern is what matters: Hills buyers research, then book quotes with two or three installers.
That research window is why we run both channels here. A homeowner in Rouse Hill who sees a clear, suburb-specific Meta offer in October books a quote before the first heatwave. The one who waits until January and searches "ducted air con Kellyville" finds you on Google instead of ringing around.
Is the Hills District open?
Yes. We have no HVAC client in the Hills District yet. We take one HVAC client per service line per area, first come. Compare the Hills with the other regions on the Sydney HVAC marketing page.
Sources
- Climate statistics: Parramatta North (Masons Drive) (066124), all years
- Climate statistics: Richmond RAAF (067105), all years
- Climate statistics: Sydney (Observatory Hill) (066062), all years
- 2021 Census QuickStats: The Hills Shire
- 2021 Census QuickStats: Hornsby
- 2021 Census QuickStats: Greater Sydney
- Air conditioner upgrade incentive | NSW Climate and Energy Action